Kemungkinan memenangi loteri enam nombor yang merangkumi 55 nombor adalah kira-kira satu dalam 28,989,675. Hakikat bahawa beratus-ratus orang Keluaran Sydney mendapat jackpot dalam satu cabutan loteri di Filipina dengan unsur-unsur itu menaikkan lebih daripada beberapa bendera merah.
Lotto Besar
Papan tanda mengalu-alukan warga Filipina untuk bermain Grand Lotto. Skandal berpotensi muncul selepas 433 orang meneka dengan betul nombor yang menang dalam cabutan loteri pada 1 Oktober. (Imej: Foto Dunia)
Hujung minggu lalu, cabutan Grand Lotto Filipina mendapat hadiah utama kira-kira $4 juta. Bagaimanapun, apabila 433 orang tampil ke hadapan dan Data keluaran SGP menunjukkan tiket kemenangan mereka, persoalan tentang kemungkinan penipuan mula timbul.
It wouldn’t be the first time someone has rigged the outcome of a lottery. Although an investigation is now underway, some mathematicians believe that it’s conceivable the results are legitimate.
Astronomical Odds
The BBC reports that Koko Pimentel, the senate minority leader, wants an official inquiry into the lottery draw. The numbers that hit were all divisible by nine, and according to him, it’s highly unlikely that this was a coincidence. It’s also virtually impossible for hundreds of people to choose the same numbers on the same draw.
The media outlet cited Guido David, who said the odds of so many people selecting this particular set of numbers is “one followed by 1,224 zeros.” The University of the Philippines math professor added that he doesn’t believe the number has a name because it’s so big.
The Grand Lotto operates like many others. Players have to choose six numbers for the draw, with 1-55 being the choices. On October 1, the winning combination was 9-18-27-36-45-54.
Pimentel is getting support from Senator Risa Hontiveros. She issued a statement in which she acknowledged that an investigation can help clear the air over whether or not there was any manipulation.
Overseeing the lottery is the Philippine Charity Sweepstakes Office (PCSO). The agency’s GM, Melquiades Robles, denied any wrongdoing took place and said it would be impossible to rig the outcome. She added that people regularly use sequences when choosing their lottery numbers.
Robles explained that machines automatically select the numbers, with no human intervention in the process. The only interaction a person has with the draw is when the machine is turned on.
Improbable, Not Impossible
As unlikely as it is that the number combination would appear and so many people would have played that sequence, it isn’t impossible. A University of California math professor, Terence Tao, told the BBC that it was bound to happen sooner or later.
Tao menjelaskan bahawa dengan jumlah cabutan yang berlaku di seluruh dunia, statistik mula bertambah baik. Pada satu ketika, bintang perlu diselaraskan untuk menghasilkan hasil yang luar biasa, hampir mustahil.
Profesor membandingkannya dengan poker. Permainan, atau bahkan siri seperti WSOP, mungkin tidak melihat siram lurus atau empat jenis. Walau HK Prize Hari ini bagaimanapun, merentasi berjuta-juta tangan poker yang berlaku pada bila-bila masa, kemungkinan salah satu daripada mereka memukul meningkat dengan pesat.
Ia tidak akan memberi manfaat kepada ratusan orang untuk bekerjasama dalam cabutan loteri. Dengan keputusan cabutan ini, setiap pemenang hanya akan membawa pulang sekitar PHP545,245 (AS$9,296) sebelum cukai.
